Wednesday, February 22, 2017

Louis-Vincent Gave translates geopolitical events of 2016 into investment opportunities for 2017

Louis-Vincent Gave discusses with Erik Townsend:

China Reflation Trade
Is Chinese Growth Rolling Over?
Will Trump Get a Weaker US Dollar?
Brexit and the Future of the European Union
Philippines and Rodrigo Duterte
Rise of the Chinese Empire
India and the Indian Currency System
Opinions on Stocks and Bonds
Investment Themes for 2017
Risks for 2017

I thought the insight into Asia, specifically the Phillippines under Duerte, Xi Jinping's imperial ambitions, and the role of corruption within an developing economy (India) were particularly useful.

Friday, February 10, 2017

Jim Rogers: Macro Outlook in the Trump Era

Jim Rogers incorrectly conflates the current period of US hegemony where we live under a dollar standard with the previous instances of European imperial dominance where global trade and commerce was constrained under a gold standard. Notwithstanding that, it is an entertaining interview, and Rogers' critique of the view that many uncomfortable with immigrants and refugees see them as the other ("their food smells bad, they smell bad") is prescient in the current era.

Sunday, January 29, 2017

David Rosenberg: Opportunities and Outlook for 2017 via Macrovoices

The interview with David Rosenberg begins at 8:05. Differences of opinion make markets but I think he is spot on in stating the that calls for the death of the secular bull market in bonds is premature.

Monday, March 7, 2016

Europe is Aging

Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Helicopter drops -- a potentially temporary respite to longer term stagnation

For the whole article, go here.
It has been argued for as long as this blog has existed that following the global financial crisis of 2008 there would not be a return to rate normalization. In the absence of meaningful real wage increases for the masses, and the added onus of an ever expanding wave of retirees being ostensibly supported by an ever shrinking bracket of working age individuals, helicopter drops courtesy of central banks would provide an albeit temporary catalyst to growth. Political economy trumps economics. There are serious distributional aspects that are not being addressed and these will be exacerbated by technological advances and shifts.